Month: December 2009

There is no economic consensus

Posted by Chief Blogger – 9 December, 2009

I wrote recently that even though proponents may claim that there is a grand and holy scientific consensus surrounding AGW, no such economic consensus exists on carbon tax and trade. I also wrote in response to Turnbull’s socialist outburst the following comment on Turnbull’s blog:

You may claim that there is a scientific consensus supporting AGW, but there is no economic consensus that a carbon tax is the most effective way to mitigate the issue.

Now Tony Abbott has picked up on the same issue. In between being badgered by Tony Jones on Lateline, Abbott said the following (about the 17 min mark):

…whatever the scientific consensus might be about warming there is now no economic consensus whatsoever about the merits of Mr. Rudd’s emissions trading scheme.

It is a point that needs repeating. Abbott does not want to get bogged down in a scientific debate about Rudd’s carbon tax and trade policy. He can’t win that debate because he is a politician, he can though win a debate about politics, the law and economics and general Rudd style scaremongering, which flies in the face of common sense.

Closer to a world government

Posted by Chief Blogger – 9 December, 2009

If the massive swings against the ALP in the middle class to low income booths of the recent by-elections are anything to go by, Rudd is losing the argument on climate change and especially on carbon tax and trade (CTT). So what does  any good socialist do when they are losing or have lost the argument through a democratic process? They go overseas to get an international institution to try and impose a ‘solution’ on there own country.

…Australia was under intense pressure to commit to an emissions-reduction pledge of at least 15 per cent by 2020 — three times its unconditional target of 5 per cent…”It is pretty clear Australia will have to move well beyond 5 per cent,” one developed-nation negotiator said.

Hell yeah – democracy take a hike. Then the propaganda ‘hide the decline’ technocrats ramp up the scaremongering:

The conference began last night with an announcement by the World Meteorological Organisation that this decade has likely been the warmest on record, and this year the fifth-warmest.

It is unbelievable that these people are still making this claim, even after the hockey stick and Climategate scandals. It may depend though upon what they define ‘record’ as. So bullying, scaring and now $$$:

….consensus emerging around a $10 billion-a-year “first step” fund to help developing countries cope with climate change that was already unavoidable.

If the EU and USA actually go for a 15 per cent cut – with Gordon Brown wanting 30 per cent – then Australia should opt out and we should just take our chances that the earth does not turn into a burning hell hole as proponents claim it will.

Swings to Libs in both by elections

Posted by Chief Blogger – 6 December, 2009

Yes you heard it here first. Back in August I predicted that there would not be a swing away from the Libs on a 2pp basis, even with Turnbull as the leader. As the voting count currently stands this seems to be the case. In Bradfield in 2007 on a 2pp the Libs won 63.45 per cent, now in 2009 63.56 per cent. In Higgins in 2007 the Libs won 57.04 per cent and now in 2009 57.57 per cent. Now percentages could change slightly by the time the count ends, but there does not appear to be a hint of a swing against the Libs in both seats on a 2pp basis.

So Abbott 2, Rudd 0.

It goes to show just out of touch the main stream media and especially the ABC are. Just listen to the video posted to this ABC article before the vote count. Libs did not even need preferences to win as the ABC predicted they would need.

Oh dear, MT throws a dummy – update

Posted by Chief Blogger – 6 December, 2009

It was not entirely clear if Malcolm Turnbull ever had the Liberal Party as his first choice for a political career. And given they way MT blindly followed Rudd on carbon tax one would have to imagine that the ALP really was his first choice. He firstly tried to impose his climate change dogma on an unwilling party room meeting, then when there was a back lash to his ‘my way or the highway’ leadership style he started ripping into Liberal Party colleagues on ABC radio – where else – then he gets ousted and the party room voted overwhelmingly to dump his ‘climate dogma follow the ALP’ policy, yet he continued to defy the party room by publicly touting his climate change dogma, even as Abbott tried to contest and win two by-elections – which he has done.

But wait, there’s more.

….some are also urging him to establish a new “third force” political party, an idea they say he canvassed privately before becoming Opposition leader.

While Mr Turnbull yesterday described any such plans as “science fiction”, colleagues say he raised the idea only three years ago with the idea that it would be free-market, pro-republic and committed to fighting climate change.

One cannot have a free market fight climate change policy. How on earth is Rudd’s massive carbon tax and regulation policy that MT wanted to push through parliament free market? Delusional.

Former Liberal leader John Hewson publicly backed the idea this week.

Like I said, delusional.

UPDATE

The delusion continues:

In a “straight-talking” blog entry released this morning, Mr Turnbull also says the Coalition climate change policy is a “farce”, because it does not have a policy.

And Turnbull’s policy was basically to do what ever Rudd told him to do. MT is a fanatic. He seems to have spent more  time over the last two weeks criticising colleagues in a very personal way, then accepting the fact that he is no good at politics and should clear off.

Nuclear talking point

Posted by Chief Blogger – 4 December, 2009

I am tired of hearing the same line from the ALP about nuclear power stations in people’s back yard. With Abbott proposing nuclear power he need only say that he’d rather have a nuclear power station in his backyard than a coal fired power station, because coal stations emit more pollution – and i am not talking about carbon dioxide – and even more than solar and wind power, because they don’t provide 24/7 power to begin with. Simple.

…Liberal MP Dennis Jensen said Mr Abbott should consider the option as part of a new climate change policy.

“I think Australians are starting to realise nuclear is a clean, viable option.

“In terms of airborne emissions, there are none,” Dr Jensen said.

Wall Street Journal hails Abbott

Posted by Chief Blogger – 3 December, 2009

The US edition of the WSJ has written an editorial in full praise of Abbott:

Mr. Abbott has spared no time in setting out his views. Yesterday he called cap and trade “a great big tax to create a great big slush fund to provide politicized handouts, run by giant bureaucracy.” That is exactly what Mr. Rudd is proposing: to have business pay government for carbon credits, starting in 2011. Canberra would then redistribute the revenues to favored green industries and middle-class voters, with a bureaucracy to manage the whole thing.

Mr. Abbott asked his Liberal Party colleagues yesterday to vote on whether they would support cap and trade. They overwhelmingly oppose it. That’s a welcome switch for the party, which has been emboldened by Mr. Abbott’s conviction.

…but according to the ABC the Liberal Party is in ‘turmoil’, with a front page story on one of the two dissenting Liberal senators. big deal.

ABC annoyed – Abbott on a winner

Posted by Chief Blogger – 3 December, 2009

The fact that the MSM – especially the ABC – has been piling it on Abbott since becoming leader is testament to his Howard like qualities of being able to speak directly to the people and ignore the media’s self-appointed role as information censors for the people. In this case the MSM wants to stifle any debate about the merits of carbon taxation and trade (CTT) in reducing carbon emissions. Not too mention the science. Greg Sheridan notes:

…on Melbourne’s ABC 774 radio, stand-in host Beverly O’Connor labelled Abbott someone who had always been a wrecker and that was why so many voters found him unacceptable. She then gushed all over Mungo McCallum, of all people, as a great cultural icon and political guru.

This trivial bit of typical ABC nonsense is important only because it demonstrates how acutely Abbott annoys a certain ABC-style zeitgeist.

Sheridan also dismissed any suggestion that Abbott is an ‘extremist’, as the ABC would have us believe. He is just a normal run of the mill conservative that respects freedom and liberty.

The main reason the MSM have gone into hysterics over Abbott is because there is no grand and holy consensus that a CTT system is the best way to reduce carbon emissions. Which means it is more difficult for the MSM to use  ad hominem attacks at conservatives that are convincing, especially when one considers the opportunity cost of global CTT schemes – estimated by the Copenhagen Consensus to $40 trillion for a 2 degree Celsius reduction in temperature. The same price tag could eliminate nearly all global hunger, malnutrition and a range of other preventable diseases currently effecting the developing world, plus have money left over to adapt food technology and infrastructure to any possible temperature increase. Also, if one accepts Lord Monckton’s calculations, assuming we could switch off the carbon economy tomorrow it would take around 130 years to take enough carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to achieve a 2 degree reduction.

The whole CTT propostion looks even more absurd and unlikely.

Rudd blinked

Posted by Chief Blogger – 2 December, 2009

After the carbon tax was rejected by the senate, Julia Gillard said that Abbott gets one more chance next year to pass the carbon bill. I doubt he will comply after all that he has said this week. Seems to me that Rudd is running scared. He was not man enough to announce it himself. Some speculation that the government could lose its double dissolution election trigger if it reintroduced the bill. Not sure about that.

Abbott 1 Rudd 0.

Where is the ‘Liberal Turmoil’, ABC? – update

Posted by Chief Blogger – 2 December, 2009

The ABC is continuing to run a special web page entitled, ‘Liberal Turmoil.’ This has to be one of the most blatant acts of bias ever shown by the ABC on their taxpayer funded website.

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The ABC is gone into hysterics, fearful of Abbott’s conservative agenda with words like ‘coming from the clouds’, ‘mutiny’, ‘shock’, ‘extreme’, ‘unlikely’, ‘the experiment’, etc…to describe Abbott’s victory. The impression is to give readers the idea that Abbott is not really up to it, and that the Party is deeply divided over carbon taxation and therefore Abbott’s leadership. However, the ABC has completely ignored the secret ballot to delay Rudd’s carbon tax that Abbott conducted after the leadership vote amongst the party room. Abbott won an overwhelming majority to push for the delay and if not delay then out right opposition to the tax.

The ABC has also ignored the grass roots campaign waged by Liberal Party supporters and members to get Abbott into the leadership. From Paul Sheehan:

Malcolm Turnbull had long languished in the opinion polls, but now his party’s grassroots had mobilised against him. ”I have never seen anything like it,” said Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells when I called to ask why she publicly abandoned Turnbull’s leadership on Friday. By yesterday afternoon her office had logged almost 8000 emails and calls opposing the proposed emissions trading scheme.

By my rough estimate, more than 400,000 such emails and calls have been sent to the 99 federal Coalition members over the past two months.

It is an estimate Senator Cory Bernardi, from South Australia, thinks is conservative…

This is what made the Liberal Party room so crowded yesterday, the crush of opinion from ordinary Australians that members brought into the room with them.

So there is an overwhelming consensus within the Liberal Party and amongst its supporters to oppose Rudd’s carbon tax and that means supporting Abbott as leader. Where is the turmoil? And then there is Alan Jones:

On October 27 I had a long private talk with him (AJ). We discussed the internal ructions. I mentioned someone I thought could galvanise the party if he came to Canberra in a few years.

No, Jones replied, he thought there would be another process similar to the one where the Liberals, after churning through leaders, turned to John Howard. He thought they would again turn to a tough veteran, somebody the media had written off.

Did he have anyone in mind?

”Tony Abbott.”

The ABC also tried its best to stop Howard taking the leadership in 1994, and looked what happened – in power for nearly 12 years. Turmoil indeed.

He believed Abbott, like Howard, was widely underestimated and could do a much better job of mining the electorate on visceral issues like immigration and higher taxation, a road Rudd had chosen to take via the emissions trading scheme.

Abbott, he believed, as a plain-spoken, mortgage-bound, often painfully frank man, could cut through with voters in a way Turnbull’s Point Piper patina never would.

So everyone from the centre-right’s number one media personality down to the everyday supporters rallied for Abbott. Effectively the only recalcitrants are the 20 or so members that voted not to delay and oppose Rudd’s carbon tax. This is probably the most unified the centre-right side of politics has been since about 18 months before the 2007 election. There is no turmoil and the ABC should remove its website!

UPDATE

Only two Liberal senators crossed the floor to vote with the government on carbon taxation. Hardly ‘turmoil.’

Gordon Brown made the list…

Posted by Chief Blogger – 2 December, 2009

…but not Kevin Rudd, in Foreign Policy’s ‘top 100 global thinkers’.  If I recall correctly FP rejected Rudd’s silly neo-liberalism essay for publication last year. The fact that Gordon Brown made the list, given the abysmal state of the UK, is a little strange . So Rudd misses out. It really is rather funny to see Rudd – who was meant to be a foreign policy guru – flounder on foreign policy from day one. He’s managed to annoy the Japanese, Chinese, Indians and Indonesians for no reason other than clumsy diplomacy. Is there anyone else in the region he wants to annoy?

However one Australian did make the list:

44. David Kilcullen

for writing the book on how America fights small wars.

Counterinsurgency expert | Washington

A gregarious former lieutenant colonel in the Australian Army, Kilcullen had an epiphany as a Ph.D. student in political anthropology. At root, guerrilla movements were motivated not by radical ideals, but by mundane, everyday drives; defeating them requires protecting the population and developing an in-depth knowledge of local social networks. In 2007, as the Iraqi insurgency was reaching its height, Gen. David Petraeus brought him on as a senior advisor, and many credit Kilcullen’s ideas with saving countless lives. Now, the Aussie has begun applying his out-of-the-box thinking to Afghanistan, starting with his book The Accidental Guerrilla. “If I were a Muslim,” Kilcullen told the New Yorker, “I’d probably be a jihadist.… The thing that drives these guys — a sense of adventure, wanting to be part of the moment, wanting to be in the big movement of history that’s happening now — that’s the same thing that drives me, you know?”

….

Worst idea: The notion that the West can afford to fail in Afghanistan and still have a chance of preventing the collapse and terrorist takeover of Pakistan.