The sugar rush of this increased confidence initially gave George W Bush’s popularity a boost to 65%. However, the media would quickly turn permanently negative and has been running down the former US president and the Iraq war virtually every day since. This narrative continues today where the media seems to celebrate any negative news coming out of Iraq.  With the troop withdrawal now complete, all we hear is how bad it has been.

But is this fair and balanced? No.  What’s missing from the analysis is the ‘opportunity cost’ of not intervening in Iraq. Now war is ugly, and it is my personal belief we should err on the side of peace wherever possible. But the bottom line is this, without hyperbole, some people in this world are truly evil.

Enter Saddam Hussein:

Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator responsible for the deaths of over 1.3M of his own people, with cold blood runing through his veins he murdered over 40 members of his own family, detained and tortured political prisoners, used chemical weapons to commit genocide against a Kurdish minority, and while in his formative years as a secondary student he killed a distant cousin by shooting him in the head.  Is the world better off without Saddam Hussein? Absolutely. But how much so? Based on extrapolating the casualty rates during two discrete periods of time, (Saddam Hussein’s reign vs the Iraq war), on average, 108.4 extra lives were saved per day (see below). As a result, the opportunity cost of not intervening in Iraq is that 345,796 more people would be dead. From this Iraq has at least 345,796 reasons to sing ‘God Bless America’, and two more if you include freedom and democracy.

References:

1. Wikileaks Iraq War Logs – http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,724845,00.html
2. Iraq Body Count Project – http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
3. Infoshout – http://www.infoshout.com
4. Whitehouse Release – http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/04/20030404-1.html

Sir Michael Ogio (GG) says he will not be swearing in either of the men.

The secretary said Sir Michael Ogio wants Mr O’Neill and Sir Michael to get together and sort out the disagreement themselves.

I don’t know if things will get out of control, but there is no way the ADF will want PNG to descend into chaos. Gillard is no John Howard and both Rudd and Gillard have been foreign policy disasters: Malaysia, until recently India, Indonesia, Japan, China, etc…. Honestly, if things go bad in PNG the Australian public are going to be wanting the Coalition to take over. Does anyone really think Gillard will be up to dealing with a major war-like situation on our door step? Given her track record thus far, an impartial and dispassionate person would have to say no.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith says he hopes the controversy will be resolved peacefully.

Yes…..

UPDATE

Apparently Osama was watching the wedding on the ACT Chief Minister’s pay TV provider Transact – essentially making him the only subscriber. Easy give away.

UPDATE

The Australia Defence Association is gowing to town on Stephen Smith.

“Simple commonsense tells you that if you put women in some jobs where you directly fight men, enemy men, one on one in a physical confrontation for a continuous period, then we are likely to suffer more female casualties than male casualties.

“The other thing the feminists never justify in their arguments is would they be prepared to have women suffer disproportionate casualties compared to men just to satisfy their whims.”

and….

Mr James said he consulted “five or six senior legal counsel in the ADO membership” who unanimously told him Mr Smith had acted unlawfully.

“His interference in an internal disciplinary proceeding contravenes the principle of the separation of powers.”

Smith’s press conferences really were a case of ‘forget due process and whip up a storm of hysteria’. Apparently the AWOL hearing against the female cadet under question was requested by her based on legal advice, not some type of ‘pay-back’ against the cadet for going public as Stephen Smith has tried to argue before the press.

UPDATE II

It is amazing that a stupid teenage prank that could be quickly resolved before any magistrate has now blown out into a full on attack on the ADF, CDF, the chain of command and combat units and personnel via no less than 6 inquiries and a Defence Minister that has lost control of his mouth. Now we have the ABC giving credence to some obscure reserve Army Captain, who appears to be as removed from the situation as any civilian.

But Julian Fidge, a GP in Wangaratta and a medical officer with the rank of Captain in the Army Reserve, has called the issue of women in frontline service a “furphy”.

He says Air Chief Marshal Houston is the reason a “destructive” culture remains in Defence and has called for his resignation.

The ABC really are clutching at straws. In all of this of course no body, especially the Minister, has any clue about what has actually gone on at ADFA!

UPDATE III

Probably the best summation of the issue from AB:

Some low-life lout at the Australian Defence Forces Academy had sex with another cadet, an 18-year-old girl who should have known better, and got six of his mates next door to secretly watch the gymnastics via Skype.

Yet another cadet blew the whistle and the ADFA called the police, who decided no crime had been committed. Not satisfied, the ADFA decided to find some other excuse to punish the creeps who so humiliated the girl.

But in the meantime the ADFA commandant, Commodore Bruce Kafer, punished the female cadet for two earlier breaches of his academy’s strict rules – drinking alcohol and being absent without leave.

He reportedly gave her the option of delaying the hearing, given her distress over the Skype betrayal, but she allegedly said she’d rather get it over with, and received a mild punishment.

So far I’m struggling to find in this narrative a crime so terrible as to justify Kafer now being damned by his Minister, vilified in the media and told to take leave by his clearly unwilling superiors, bowing to their masters.

When he discovered a couple of weeks ago that soldiers in Afghanistan described the locals and Taliban as ‘sand coons’ and the like, he claimed that he couldn’t think of anything worse. Smith has clearly never been shot at, wounded or seen someone die in battle. Would Smith make the same claim about calling Japanese ‘nips’ during WWII, or what about our own soldiers being called ‘rats’ during the Tobrouk siege? Soft…..Oh, and the soldiers also called the PM a ranga (a little bit of ‘hyperbowl’).

This week we have a case where a female cadet was secretly filmed having sex, so sent to the media about it. Stephen Smith endorses her decision to ignore internal disciplinary processes and chain of command and just vent on national TV. Is this how Defence disciplinary matters will be dealt with in the future, on the TV?

It now appears that the cadet in question has a poor disciplinary record and was due to face court proceedings. However:

Mr Smith called for her conviction to be quashed, saying it was ”inappropriate, insensitive or completely stupid” to proceed with the hearing yesterday and casting doubt on her capacity to plead guilty under the circumstances.

Presumably people join the ADF to learn how to fight and kill through discipline, or is that an optional extra these days due to sensitivity concerns? It seems increasingly that the ADF is becoming a micro welfare and nanny state.

It also begs the question what Stephen Smith is doing involving himself in day to day military discipline. All of the above three incidents should be resolved without the Defence Minister going on national TV wailing about how must sympathy and concern he has. One might assume he has bigger things to worry about, like our dilapidated naval amphibious capability and the current war in Afghanistan. You know, things of national importance that can only be managed with national leadership. Smith clearly needs to toughen up and prioritise and cut the ‘hyperbowl’.

UPDATE

This story does not add up, although further details could clarify the issue. An aunt rang up ABC radio today to report a past rape of her niece.

Jennifer’s niece did leave the army, but she was not the only one who was allegedly assaulted.

“It’s absolutely disgraceful and it’s such a waste of taxpayer money and I can tell you she was not the only one,” Jennifer said.

“When she was in hospital she met a young girl who had been raped twice and she was still continuing because her life’s dream was to be in the Army.”

If someone is admitted to hospital for rape medical staff are obligated to report it to the police. Wonder which hospital it was? Furthermore, if you were the aunt of a niece that had been raped, I would imagine most relatives would report it to the police.

BTW, I will not publish abusive comments. If you don’t think the ADF is becoming a micro welfare state, then walk around Canberra and look at all the glorified public servants dressed up in uniform or talk to anyone in DVA about all the claims that are paid out for basic acts of stupidity. DoD is now even paying for breast plastic ’augmentation’ and transgender surgery. My taxes at work!

UPDATE II

Looks like Stephen Smith is fast out of his depth.

Australia Defence Association executive director Neil James, who is close to military service chiefs, said Mr Smith should have backed Defence’s handling of the matter with an assurance that “there was no evidence to suggest that any one in the ADF chain of command had acted inappropriately”.

He also accused Mr Smith of overstepping his authority in calling for unrelated charges against the female air force cadet to be dropped.

“It is surely constitutionally inappropriate – at least – for the Minister for Defence to be perceived as interfering in defence force disciplinary proceedings,” Mr James said.

Stephen Smith should have bigger issues to deal with than cadets running a muck. The more cynical person might say that Smith’s over reaction was designed to take the headlines away from Rudd’s moves to take down Gillard, and the collapse of the biggest tender process in Commonwealth history, the NBN’s $14bn ‘network construction’ project.

UPDATE III

Things are getting worse for Stephen Smith after he refused to give the ADF the benefit of the doubt. He should have stayed out of it from the beginning and reserved judgement until all the facts were in.

“It’s not up for the minister to express the confidence in a subordinate officer in the Defence Force.

“The minister rightly controls the Defence Force but it’s legally commanded by the Chief of Defence Force and the chain of command.

“And the idea that a minister should be commenting on command matters further down in that chain of command is reasonably unprecedented in our Westminster system.

“It’s sad that we’ve reached this stage.”

This and past events seem to indicate that Smith is losing control of his portfolio.

The World Today also spoke to several recently retired members of the military’s top brass.

While some were reluctant to enter the debate publicly, there was a deal of anger privately expressed over criticism of the culture of the institutions and a reluctance by Mr Smith to back key officers in command.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said it was important to see this week’s initial bombardment as “phase one” in a multi-phase operation.

“This will be a long process,” Mr Rudd told ABC television.

Asked just how long he envisioned the intervention would last, Mr Rudd said: “I’m not prepared to speculate on timelines here.

First of no in Australia really cares how long it will take because we are not involved and second given that we are not invovled Rudd wouldn’t know how long it will take – how long to do what exactly?!?

Mr Rudd would not be drawn on whether he wanted the intervention to end in regime change.

“This is a very difficult operation,” he said.

For the reasons stated above, what Rudd wants is irrelevant.

Allied forces would use the “absolute best” targeting strategies to avoid killing civilians, Mr Rudd said.

“I think it’s realistic to assume, however, that that ongoing risk exists,” he said.

Once again Rudd talks as if he is involved in doing something. We don’t have combat forces in the region and have no intention of trying to put combat forces in harms way so what the hell is Rudd talking about!?!

UPDATE

Watching Q&A and people are talking as if Australia is actually doing something in Libya! We have no role to play, it is not our region, we do not plan to deploy combat forces, we have nothing to gain  = not in our national interest.

Interesting that the Greens support destroying the Libyan regime but when it came to Saddam’s, a regime that was far more violent and blood thirsty, they said no.  Shows that Iraq was always about partisan politics.

UPDATE

ABC ’24′ coverage is non-existent of the attacks on Libya air defences and armoured forces by allied forces.

INDEPENDENT MP Rob Oakeshott lobbied Julia Gillard to give one of his biggest political donors preferential access to lucrative defence contracts during vital talks on who would become prime minister.

Mr Oakeshott’s links with a local business in his electorate, contractor Birdon Marine, has been referred to the NSW corruption agency for investigation.

…He did not reveal the Port Macquarie-based contractor had donated thousands of dollars to his political campaigns.

If it can be shown that Oakeshott tried to interfere in a tendering process, then he will be kicked out of Parliament.