Category: International Affairs

Let them rot

Posted by Chief Blogger – 10 January, 2012

The ABC campaign to get three anti-whaling thugs released seems to have worked:

Japanese media is reporting three Australian anti-whaling activists being held onboard a Japanese whaling ship will be released.

Geoffrey Tuxworth, Simon Peterffy and Glen Pendlebury scaled aboard the Shonan Maru 2 under the cover of darkness over the weekend to demand the whaling security ship leave Australian waters.

The activists from the Forest Rescue Australia environment group were then detained and questioned by Japanese coastguard officers stationed onboard.

I gather they are on welfare. We have hundreds of thousands of Australians overseas, but because these trio are environmental activists the entire Federal government is expected to jump to their rescue.

The Real Iraq Body Count

Posted by Chief Blogger – 19 December, 2011

The US Army has now left Iraq after 9 years. Unfortunately the public have been treated to the same typically ill-informed and fact free analysis after the war that become so typical of the media’s coverage during the war. Take for instance this snide statement made by Peter Hitchens at the Daily Mail this week:

….which Middle Eastern country can we mess up next?

While there are no official body count figures for Iraq under Saddam, various sources can be used to piece together an estimated death toll for all deaths resulting from Saddam being in power and for the failed UN resolutions and sanctions used to keep him in power. The figures provided are rough. It seems likely that evidence, such as the continued discovery of mass graves of mass slaughter in Iraq under UN Sanctions, will reveal a civil war that was never reported on yet still took place.

Saddam and UN Policies Iraqi Deaths: 1991 – 2003
Post-Gulf War suppression 200,000 1991 – 1992
Mahjar Prison 3,000 1993-1998
Kurdish Civil War 5,000 1994 – 1997
Political prisoner ‘cleansing’ 2,500 1997 – 1999
Other political prison killings 1,000 2000-2001
Deaths caused by UN sanctions 500,000 1991-2003
Total 711,500
Deaths per annum 59,292

It seems to some extent the removal of Saddam brought the Iraqi civil war to the surface. Nevertheless, by contrast to life under Saddam and UN sanctions the table below shows violent deaths in Iraq from 2003 to 2011 was over 100,000. The figure is from the website Iraq Body Count. A quick review of the data reveals that general murders – deaths that have nothing to do with the conflict – have also been included in the count. It is also not clear to what extent the invasion has to take responsibility for sectarian violence. Furthermore, amongst the 113,000 are bunch of bad people that are probably better off dead. Be that as it may, the numbers are still far less than what Saddam dished out and what UN policies resulted in between 1991 – 2003.

Iraqi Self Rule Iraqi Deaths: 2003 – 2011
Gulf War II and Aftermath 113,000 2003-2011
Deaths per annum 12,556

Now obviously both total figures are horrifically high. It is pretty clear though that GWII was less bloody than what preceded it. Does anyone really think that keeping UN sanctions in place to keep Saddam in check was in the best long-term interests of the Iraqi people? A full invasion and conquest of Iraq back in 1991 would have saved many lives.

Am I my brother’s keeper?

Posted by Jeremy – 19 December, 2011

In the beginning, the tone of the media was very positive in support of the Iraq war. The western world was still largely aggrieved following 9/11 and taking action against any purported enemy, no matter how tenuously linked to the crimes of 9/11, certainly brought relief to a shaken western world. In the absence of any direct action, we felt like vulnerable little lambs just hoping the wolves didn’t pick us next. But, as the gears of war started to turn in our favour, suddenly we were back in control, we were calling the shots, and we felt truly powerful.

The sugar rush of this increased confidence initially gave George W Bush’s popularity a boost to 65%. However, the media would quickly turn permanently negative and has been running down the former US president and the Iraq war virtually every day since. This narrative continues today where the media seems to celebrate any negative news coming out of Iraq.  With the troop withdrawal now complete, all we hear is how bad it has been.

But is this fair and balanced? No.  What’s missing from the analysis is the ‘opportunity cost’ of not intervening in Iraq. Now war is ugly, and it is my personal belief we should err on the side of peace wherever possible. But the bottom line is this, without hyperbole, some people in this world are truly evil.

Enter Saddam Hussein:

Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator responsible for the deaths of over 1.3M of his own people, with cold blood runing through his veins he murdered over 40 members of his own family, detained and tortured political prisoners, used chemical weapons to commit genocide against a Kurdish minority, and while in his formative years as a secondary student he killed a distant cousin by shooting him in the head.  Is the world better off without Saddam Hussein? Absolutely. But how much so? Based on extrapolating the casualty rates during two discrete periods of time, (Saddam Hussein’s reign vs the Iraq war), on average, 108.4 extra lives were saved per day (see below). As a result, the opportunity cost of not intervening in Iraq is that 345,796 more people would be dead. From this Iraq has at least 345,796 reasons to sing ‘God Bless America’, and two more if you include freedom and democracy.

References:

  1. Wikileaks Iraq War Logs – http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,724845,00.html
  2. Iraq Body Count Project – http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
  3. Infoshout – http://www.infoshout.com
  4. Whitehouse Release – http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/04/20030404-1.html

How hard is it? Just Say No

Posted by Chief Blogger – 16 December, 2011

The French head of the IMF Christine Lagarde wants the rest of the world to bail out the Euro zone political project:

“It is not a crisis that will be resolved by one group of countries taking action.

“It is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions, all categories of countries actually taking action.”

Ah um, no. It will only be resolved by European nations leaving the Euro and learning to live within their means. Furthermore, why should Joe Public in Australia be on the line for a political institution like the EU when none of our banks are heavily exposed and when the EU is not exactly a friendly and open market for Australian exports? Wayne Swan of course is a gullible fool, completely out of his depth and so will probably go along with it.

The IMF has pledged to agree extra funding by next Monday and Mrs Lagarde’s comments indicate that non-European countries will also be asked for additional money – a move likely to prove controversial with America and China.

It also raises the prospect that funds from some of the world’s poorer nations, such as Brazil and India, will be used to prop up some of the wealthiest European countries which have failed to control their public spending.

Given that the IMF is being used so overtly to save the EU political project, a case for selling our shares in the IMF is not far off. The alternative of the Euro breaking up is not being considered by the EU and therefore by extension the IMF. This means Lagarde’s objectives are political not financial and therefore has nothing to do with Australia.

PNG

Posted by Chief Blogger – 13 December, 2011

PNG: Two people claiming to the legitimate PM and the police taking sides in the dispute:

Sir Michael Ogio (GG) says he will not be swearing in either of the men.

The secretary said Sir Michael Ogio wants Mr O’Neill and Sir Michael to get together and sort out the disagreement themselves.

I don’t know if things will get out of control, but there is no way the ADF will want PNG to descend into chaos. Gillard is no John Howard and both Rudd and Gillard have been foreign policy disasters: Malaysia, until recently India, Indonesia, Japan, China, etc…. Honestly, if things go bad in PNG the Australian public are going to be wanting the Coalition to take over. Does anyone really think Gillard will be up to dealing with a major war-like situation on our door step? Given her track record thus far, an impartial and dispassionate person would have to say no.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith says he hopes the controversy will be resolved peacefully.

Yes…..

An Australian take on David Cameron and the EU

Posted by Chief Blogger – 13 December, 2011

Peter Reith has some telling thoughts on David Cameron, the EU and the spread of European style anti-democratic bureaucracy. Highlights:

I never had much time for David Cameron. When he first became opposition leader in the UK, he was soon pandering to the greens and he tried to undercut a Tory tax policy group of which I was a member.

I was also unimpressed when one of his closest colleagues told me how Cameron would not sit next to Margaret Thatcher at a Tory function because he did not want to be seen to be associated with Thatcherism.

Reith goes on to congratulate Cameron for his veto stance on EU Fiscal Union.

By rejecting the latest European rescue plan it seems that Cameron has finally had to accept the Thatcher view about Europe.

Taxation without representation is anathema to democrats and transaction taxes are not the answer to Europe’s problems. Cameron was right to say no.

So true. Pity Wayne Swan can’t speak to Australians like adults. Reith goes on to detail his experience as Australia’s representative at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. A strange institution set-up to rebuild Europe’s financial system after the fall of the Berlin Wall, but still in existence today.

The best thing I did whilst I was at the bank was to persuade Wayne Swan that Australia should sell its shares and leave the bank. Sadly, although the decision was publicly announced, Swan later changed his mind and Australia remains a member of the EBRD.

Presumably Swan was rolled by Treasury public servants.

The directors of the EBRD were nearly all public servants from treasury departments. Most knew little about banking. They were experts at self preservation. Most had sauntered from one international bank to another…..So the bureaucrats are largely running the policy and none of them are too interested in free enterprise. Europe is weighed down with deficits. And no-one has been prepared to fight for the policies that might lift productivity and provide the revenue to pay the interest on their debts.

Europe has failed to face the reality of its economic situation for decades, so it is not obvious that they will do so anytime soon.

I think it fair to say that Gillard and Co. look to the EU as an example of governance. Consider the news taxes and regulations that have been introduced without any democratic mandate. Without a change in government Australia is probably only two elections away from the same EU fate .

That took a bit of courage

Posted by Chief Blogger – 10 December, 2011

I’m not a David Cameron fan, but to stand against every EU leader and the BBC et al by vetoing a new EU treaty that would have undermined the City of London’s wealth took some guts:

Mr Cameron provoked widespread anger among European leaders by refusing to back a deal to rescue the eurozone, delighting Tories and raising questions about Britain’s future in the EU.

After Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, led objections to his “unacceptable” demands for legal protections for the City of London, the Prime Minister refused to give Britain’s backing for a new treaty to create a “fiscal union” among eurozone members.

At the end of an acrimonious summit in Brussels, all 26 other EU members signalled they could now support the new treaty, leaving Britain in a minority of one.

Conservative MPs welcomed Britain’s move back towards the traditional Tory stance of “splendid isolation” in Europe — a term for the foreign policy of the late 19th century.

Given Cameron’s compromise was rejected out of hand by the EU, it shows that the UK has virtually no influence while France and Germany are running the show. Isolating your country from the failure of the Eurozone isn’t such a bad thing.

If the momentum in the UK develops to leave the EU, it may present Australia with an opporunity to seal a deal with the UK on trade, investment and immigration. Any such deal would be very popular in both countries.

A new foreign policy agenda – way out idea #571

Posted by Chief Blogger – 21 November, 2011

How about the Coalition committing to lobby the UK for a free trade deal, including the removal of some immigration restrictions? Obviously that cannot be implemented right now because the UK is bound up by the EU. However, it would certainly put David Cameron in a bind at home and could provide further sections of the UK the excuse they may be looking for to get out of the EU. Furthermore, Australia remains the UK’s number destination for working overseas, combined with New Zealand and Canada, that is where the vast bulk of the UK’s overseas workforce is at any one point in time. I’d imagine large numbers of Australians would welcome any such deal for travel and work as well.

The EU is not as an attractive work destination because of four main reasons:

  1. Notwithstanding the common EU labour market, the barriers to entry into the EU for UK workers are too high due to high unemployment, language and cultural problems and restrictive work practices;
  2. EU pay is for the most part not competitive against Australian wages;
  3. Australia’s relative proximity to booming Asia against a declining EU; and
  4. Australia offers UK workers a lifestyle change they are unlikely to find in the EU.

Traditional problems like distance are really a thing of the past with modern telecommunications, media and transportation. Certainly the UK has all the incentive they need to leave the EU and look for something better.

I would not be holding Germany up as some type of fiscal stalwart – German Federal government debt levels as a % of GDP are just as bad as Spain’s while the German unemployment rate is much lower and GDP growth marginally higher. Imagine what German debt levels would be like if the German unemployment rate nudged higher.

UPDATE

I missed Abbott’s EU commentary:

Speaking at the conservative Policy Exchange think tank in London, Mr Abbott made it clear he thought the 17 euro nations should be looking to loosen the binds of the common currency rather than seeking a “closer union” with tighter policy co-ordination as advocated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron.

“Australia has a part to play as a good international citizen but that shouldn’t mean rubber-stamping the plans of officials whose goal is to save the euro whatever the cost,” he said……

“As facilitator of the free movement of goods, people and ideas between disparate and formerly hostile countries, the European Union has been a source of lasting good,” he said.

“As the enforcer of common policies onto divergent countries, the EU could end up exacerbating the tensions it is supposed to reduce.”

It is our money the ALP want to give to their EU mates

Posted by Chief Blogger – 6 November, 2011

So the euro zone would collapse if Australia refuses to provide money to the IMF. Work that out!

Finance Minister Penny Wong is standing firm behind the Federal Government’s pledge to give more money to the International Monetary Fund if global circumstances call for it.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard says the Group of Twenty nations is committed to ensuring the IMF is properly resourced amid the Greek debt crisis.

She says Australia would contribute more money to the fund if it is required, but the Coalition says the Government’s own debt levels should rule out sending more money overseas.

And if the Euro zone does collapse, so what? It will probably be beneficial to those countries that cannot compete with a higher currency and as an issue the Euro zone is only at the margins for the Australian economy. Propping up the Euro zone is not our problem. Furthermore, it is not as if Australia has the money – like we did during the Asian financial crisis – to help any other country or region. Those days of prudent fiscal management have gone under Gillard. There is nothing in the bank.

Good UKIP discussion below:

UK Treasury: “euro….is breaking up.” UPDATED

Posted by Chief Blogger – 4 November, 2011

The Daily Mail reports:

……Treasury minister Mark Hoban during an emergency question on the Greek crisis in the chamber just now.

Coaxed into making the usual Tory statement about never joining the Euro, he gave an interesting insight into thinking in 11 Downing Street.

He said: ‘I don’t think there’s any intention for us to join the euro at a time when it is breaking up.’

This may sound like a statement of the obvious, but it is emphatically not the government’s position.

Mr Hoban also admitted that the Government is working on contingency plans for the total collapse of the single currency.

UPDATE

Seems the public know more what about what needs to happen to Greece than the politicans. See this video. 250 billion Euros have been transferred out of Greece on the expectation that Greece will have to leave the euro.