Right Pulse

In about an hour a new Liberal Party leader will be announced. Now I am notoriously bad at making predictions, but I am fairly (well only about 60 per cent) confident that Tony Abbott will win the leadership fight.

My basic premise is that there is no way the Coalition can win power on a pro-carbon taxation and trading (CTT) policy platform at the next election. Such a position would be exactly the same stance as as the governments and apart from border control, there are no other issues that could lose the government power – public debt is not enough. Unlike Rudd in 2007, imitating the government won’t work because the electorate is still in love with Rudd. So the Coalition need something radically different. What ever slim prospect the Coalition has of winning the next election has to come from an anti-CTT election campaign. It is the only current issue that would allow them to come from no where to win the next election. That means an Abbott/Andrews/Joyce team.

Now, given that Kevin Andrews was able to come from no where to muster 35 votes last week because of his anti-CTT stance, then the more high profile Abbott should be able to attract those 35 votes plus a likely few more. With the left’s vote split between two pro-CTT candidates Turnbull and Hockey, Abbott should have the numbers to at least win the first round of voting – assuming Hockey supporters vote for a vote on the leadership. That would leave either Hockey or Turnbull out in the cold. I am gathering that Turnbull, despite his hard-line socialist CTT following, will go because of his arrogance and attacks on other Liberal Party colleagues. I am then hoping that the prospect of Joe ‘Kevin Rudd Lite’ Hockey will be too much for the rest of the party, and it then will be bye byes to the left.

Abbott would not run unless he really thought he could win – probably because of what happened to him in 2007 when he wanted the leadership, but was humiliatingly forced to bow out before the vote due to a lack of early support.

UPDATE

Oh yeah!!! I finally get a prediction right. Abbott wins by one vote! Although it was Hockey not Turnbull that was defeated in the first round of voting. An anti-CTT platform is the only chance the Coalition has of winning the next election.

It also goes to show how lame the main stream media has become. They were championing Hockey as though he had already won. He ended up third, and the one candidate the msm refused to acknowledge until the end, and even then they portrayed Abbott as a party wrecker, ended up winning.

Just get ready though for the anti-Catholic bigotry band wagon rolling into a media outlet near you. Now I am not Catholic, and even though Keating, Turnbull and Hockey nominally are, the msm will look for anyway to attack Abbott and portray him as kiddie fiddling scum.

UPDATE II

The final vote Abbott (35), Turnbull (26) and Hockey (23). Abbott winning 42 to 41. So there is a strong block of 35 opposed to a CTT period, with 7 on the margins.

The reaction from the MSM is hilarious, from news.com.au (no link):

Everyone was expecting a coronation for Joe Hockey, but instead Tony Abbott has emerged as the surprise winner of the Liberal leadership spill…

Define everyone and expecting? The MSM was wanting Hockey to be the leader. From Akerman:

Abbott and Turnbull stood for something, unlike Hockey who had nothing coherent to offer. Hockey has more to offer women’s television than politics.

Well MT must be guttered, but I don’t think this is the end. Given the narrow margin of victory, MT might have one last go at TA before then next election. And then Senators will vote the way they want to. TA needs to expose those ALP members that are privately opposed to CTT policies to place pressure on his own members to get behind him.

UPDATE III

Looks like Abbott is retaining the deputy services of Julie Bishop, interesting . Bolt is saying she wants to at least delay the CTT policy. Surprising, but good for her. And it looks like her opinion is reflected in the over whealming will of the party to delay Rudd’s CTT push: 55 to 29. Those 8 Senators that want to vote with Rudd must confirm their will to the will of the party or otherwise they will have Tony ‘headkicker’ Abbott to deal with. The last thing we want is Rudd running off to Denmark proclaiming his CTT policy as part of his campaign to be UN Sec. Gen.

UPDATE IV

The ABC is still in shock at TA victory. They still are running a special website name ‘Liberal Turmoil’ even  though a secret ballot showed that the Liberal party members wants by a large majority to delay Rudd’s CTT legislation.

UPDATE V

Some elements of the media have really lost their mind with TA victory. A headline from the Australian:

Tony Abbott’s leadership victory is a win for Turnbull and ETS opponents

I wonder if Turnbull thinks that he has won right now? I’ve read the article and it bears no resemblance to the title. A sub-editor is clearly having fits over the victory.