This time from the increasingly ludicrous Peter Hartcher of Fairfax Press fame. So this is the background, Nelson is quitting politics which will cause a by-election in his seat. Now even though Bradfield is a safe seat, you’d think with MT’s low popularity and Rudd’s messianic style popularity that the ALP would be in with a chance to damage MT with a swing. But no, Rudd is running away from a fight, so all good for MT then. Well not according to Hartcher who has managed to spin some absurd argument that any result basically spells doom for MT:
Yet Turnbull can still lose the byelection. How? Labor might be cowardly, but it’s also clever. It will put all the focus onto Turnbull and the Liberals. While Turnbull wants to use the byelection as a test of Rudd’s standing, it can only be a test of the Liberal leader.
Unless there is a resurgence in the Liberal Party’s standing, the byelection is likely to reveal the weakness of Turnbull’s position.
Think through some basic logic. Nelson won 59 per cent of the vote in 2007. The ALP – which is not contesting the by-election – won 27 per cent of the vote and the Greens 11 per cent. I don’t see the 27 per cent that voted ALP all going over to the Greens. It won’t happen. There were no independents in the 2007 election and any that come up are unlikely to have any impact. So where are people’s votes going to go? They will be shared between the Liberals and Greens. In other words the Liberals are almost guaranteed to get a swing in their favour because the ALP is not contesting the by-election. There will be no one else to vote for.