The arrest of Chinese born Australian and Rio Tinto executive in China Stern Hu on espionage charges, according to Greg Sheridan, may be a watershed event in Australian-Chinese relations:
These arrests always tend to be of ethnic Chinese, no matter what their citizenship, as though Beijing does not recognise the foreign nationality of anyone of Chinese blood. But if Australian executives cannot have difficult business dealings and negotiations in China without being arrested, this is a grievous development….If the Rudd government cannot secure Mr Hu’s release within a few days, it will be seen as having zero influence with Beijing. Kevin Rudd’s ambition to be a “zhengyou” to China, a good friend who can tell even unpleasant truths, will be torn to shreds.
Joyce has also added his two cents, and no doubt he feels vindicated by recent events in arguing against the Chinalco-Rio Tinto deal:
…what we should acknowledge is that the direct ownership of state-owned enterprises by the Communist People’s Republic of China is part of the same plan.
While the collapse of the Chinalco-Rio Tinto deal and iron ore price negotiations seem like plausible explanations, Rudd’s softly softly approach to China should also bear some responsibility. Certainly, given the respect Howard had in the region, especially with Japan and South Korea, China would have thought twice about such a move under his prime ministerial leadership. But given that Rudd has thrown all his eggs into the one Chinese basket, he has left himself isolated, exposed and vulnerable. It may be time for Rudd to make a good will visit to Japan, South Korea and India. This time leaving China off the itinerary like he left Japan off when he first visited China as PM.
UPDATE I
Rudd’s refusal to involve himself personally in this affair is starting to look like a massive mistake. This is no longer just a consular matter, but an affair – at least on the Chinese side – that is being driven from the very top by the Chinese President. Rudd has by contrast been made to look weak and feeble, someone not cut out for senior leadership. Glenn Milne:
…the question must be asked as to whether Kevin Rudd created the context in which Hu has become a diplomatic proxy for a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.
Yesterday federal ministers were sent out to attack Malcolm Turnbull over his call for Rudd to pick up the phone to his Chinese counterpart to demand the businessman’s immediate release.
But if there is a view in the community that such action is required, then Rudd has only himself to blame. Indeed the case of China is redolent of much of Rudd’s prime ministership; his propensity for promoting the impression of leverage without actually having any. The domestic policy equivalents here are Grocerywatch, Fuelwatch, and Bankwatch. Now, to Hu’s detriment we apparently have Chinawatch.
So much for Rudd’s special access to Beijing, he clearly has none. This situation would not have happened under John ‘ the man of steel’ Howard and Alexander Downer. China probably sees Rudd as a useful idiot of the west, the same term Lenin gave to left-wing socialist dissidents in the west. From Greg Sheridan:
The bottom line is clear – if Hu is not released, our relationship with China is shattered and the Rudd government will be profoundly embarrassed and seen to have no influence in Beijing…there is also nothing wrong in Malcolm Turnbull’s energetic prosecution of the issue…The decision to imprison Hu was a political decision and therefore the decision to release him must occur at the political level. Eventually the Prime Minister and Smith must secure this result. It is extremely discouraging that Smith commented that “we may be in for the long haul”.
Given that the Chinese President appears to have directed the arrest, a new travel warning should be issued for China to protect tourists and business people. The rule of law simply does not apply in China. No charges, imprisonment without a fair trial with no chance to see the ‘evidence’ against you. Rudd should also give serious consideration to a massive trade, business and cultural visit to India in the next 3 months. That would send a clear message to the Chinese leadership that we are moving on from Chinese trade and their immature responses to a business deal gone wrong.