It now looks like the Coalition will end up with 73 seats and the ALP 72. The electoral commission is saying there are no more ‘close’ seats for now. Just under 20 per cent of the vote is left to count.
So these are the main hostage demands conditions laid out by the three ex-National party independents. Both parties need their support to form government:
1. They basically want a three year fixed term,
2. Want Tony Abbott to submit his election costings to Treasury, and
3. Want Bruce Hawker to advise them on the way forward.
So what’s wrong with this?
1. A three year fixed term would put the independents in a commanding position to buy and sell policies and make demands as they please under the threat of withdrawing their support to the government,
2. The independents have made this second demand knowing full well that Abbott could not accept it without enduring significant criticism. Treasury is a politically compromised organisation after leaking a Coalition policy during the election in order to score points for the ALP – an act the AFP seem reluctant to investigate – and Treasury head Ken Henry has actively campaigned for ALP policies after the past two years. The Coalition would not get a fair run.
3. Bruce Hawker is the ALP’s chief media adviser and the cousin of Tony Windsor, who is one of the three independents making these demands.
It looks to me like a set-up; an ambush to discredit Abbott as not fit to govern. Taken together with the independents wanting other people to pay for the $43 billion ALP telecommunications network in their own electorates and their other crazy and disingenuous demand to have a government of national unity, Abbott needs to re-consider the way forward.
I say that Abbott call the independents bluff and refuse to give into their demands – much like how he called Rudd’s bluff during the ETS debacle. Look where that ended. Here is the game plan. It essentially involves lighting a fire.
The independents are in very conservative electorates. Today’s Galaxy poll showed after 52 per cent of voters in the relevant electorates want the independents to support Abbott. Less than 40 per cent want them to support the ALP. This broadly reflects how the electorates voted for the Senate: Coalition first ALP a long way behind.
In two of the three seats the independents got across the line with Coalition preferences. If the ex-Nats don’t want to accept the will of their own people then the Coalition may as well announce that they will send their preference votes to the other parties and candidates at the next election. It will be buy buy independents.
If that does not convince them, then let the ALP form government with the Green or leftie independent and two of the three ex-Nats and watch the ALP tare itself apart trying to reconcile all the differences. Like a witch blinded by power prepared to drink an unknown chalice, it will soon turn to poison and Gillard – and already defeated PM – will fail like Rudd.
UPDATE
Very clever:
The Coalition says it will hand over its costings once a police investigation into the Treasury leak is resolved.