With around 25 % of the national vote yet to be counted, postal votes in QLD are running at 59.75 % to the Liberals compared to the ALP at 29 %. In WA it is 48 % to 32 % and in NSW 66 % to 29 %. These figures may tighten but two of the three seats that are in doubt look likely to go to the Liberals – giving the Coalition 73 seats. In the ALP held Corangamite seat the Liberals are currently behind by 571 seats. There are still 1681 postal votes yet to be counted and based on the current postal 2PP % the Liberals would fall short in Corangamite by 362 votes.
This means the ALP are on track to end up with 72 seats + 1 Green + 1 Tasmanian independent = 74 seats. Gillard will also need two of the ex-National Party independents to come her way. Abbott simply needs the three ex-Nats to end the ballerina routine and accept the overwhelming will of their own electorates by giving the Coalition the support it needs to form government. However, the Greens and Tasmanian independent candidates might want to consider that they are only going to be in the House of Reps because of Liberal preferences. If they are unwilling to find common ground with Abbott then they are as good as dead meat at the next election. Abbott is completely in the driving seat. Gillard is gone!
UPDATE
All three ex-Nats independents are warning of a new poll if they can’t reach agreement. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll there would be virtually no change in the result.