After Alan Jones’ interview with two of the three country independents today I am more confident that they will vote with the Coalition – giving Abbott the 76 seats he needs. Apparently the independents are all good friends with Jones’ who is also Abbott’s number one supporter in the media. A nice friend to have. So they all get along like a house on fire as long as the Nationals stay away and keep silent.
I think the independents just don’t want to be taken for granted. It is clear to the independents that they don’t necessarily equate better broadband in the country with Gillard’s NBN – at least I think Jones’ was able to convince them of this. A non-negotiable for the Coalition. The independents may simply want a better deal for the country on water, infrastructure, etc… They also need to show their electorates – nominally conservative – that they really are independent voices that won’t roll over for anyone. Just like Alan Jones. Again a nice fit.
The only risk I can see is the independent’s demand for stable government for the three year term. That could be code for either three things:
1. Given the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate, the independents may support the ALP. If I recall the Greens only promised to support supply for Gillard. Not clear about Abbott,
2. However, given the risk of post-election ALP blood letting, the role of the ‘gang of four’ and the power brokers, the independents may go for Abbott. Rob Oakeshott told Alan Jones that he was dismayed at how the ALP ‘gang of four’ controlled government – a potential source of instability, or
3. The three independents may seek a unity government with a mix of ALP and Coalition MP’s and Senators occupying ministerial portfolios. The independents don’t go in for political ideology so they probably don’t understand how unrealistic a unity government would be, assuming they propose one.
Alan Jones will interview Bob Katter this week.
UPDATE
Some reports this morning that at least two of the independents will betray their electorate and use point 1 from above to support the ALP. Bob Katter may go with the Coalition. I guess the other two independents can kiss good be to their re-election.They are basically saying that they are happy for a bunch of environmental cranks to run the country. Good luck to country Australia. Primary industries will be the first to go under a Green government.
UPDATE II
Heard on the radio that Tony Windsor said no deal with Gillard had been done and that he has only spoken to her once. He also went on to rule out using reason 1 – see above – as cause for supporting the ALP. He said he would wait to see the final election outcome, which may take another two weeks. Potentially some over eager journalists are trying to call it for Gillard before the gun has gone off. Some how I don’t think Windsor or Katter will take too kindly to being bullied by the Canberra press gallery into backing Gillard. Conservatives should be patient and adopt a wait and see policy. The independents aren’t about to back Gillard without first seeing what Abbott has to offer. From Catallaxy Files:
In New England, the Nationals got 20,337 first preference votes against Labor’s 6,472. In Lyne, the Nationals got 25,994 first preference votes against Labor’s 9898. And in Kennedy the LNP got 17,309 first preference votes against Labor’s 13,659. In all three cases the preference distribution shows that the Nationals and LNP ran second.
In all three cases the voters of those electorates have CLEARLY spoken and it is up to Windsor, Oakeshott and Katter to listen.
UPDATE III
Option 3 – see above – may be in play if this report is to be believed.
Independent MP Rob Oakeshott has raised the idea of a mix-and-match government, where former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd could serve as foreign minister under the Coalition leadership of Tony Abbott.
What’s clear is that none of the independents have made up their minds. I don’t think it is their role however to be determining the make-up of the government in such detailed fashion. The independents should merely be seeking to best represent their local electorate. Nothing more nothing less, not play king makers for the next three years.