I gave my support to Nelson when he became leader because he better represents conservative ideals and values than Turnbull. I also gave him a year to make an impact in the polls. This was all based on assumption that Costello was going to retire. Well it now looks like this is becoming less likely, after Costello rejected a private sector multi-million dollar job working in the gold industry. I don’t believe Nelson will keep on as leader if his poll results have not improved over the next three months – he is a realist. There is every chance he will resign and hand the leadership baton over to Costello. This would have two benefits. Firstly, it would send a must needed message of Liberal unity and would potentially avoid a divisive party ballot. Secondly, it would isolate Turnbull and his left-ward leaning supporters. The Coalition has to be an alternative government and they can only do this by winning the war of ideas around conservative principles – not being a mirror image of the Government, but only with a few less cracks.
A recent article in The Australian makes me think more and more that Costello and Nelson have established a tacit agreement on the leadership:
Costello and the incumbent Liberal leader had a telephone discussion on Tuesday morning, the day Nelson left for his 10-day overseas tour. At the end of the conversation Nelson was confident he would not be challenged by Costello and that Costello would counter-challenge anyone else who did, a direct message to Treasury spokesman Turnbull, who will take over from Nelson if Costello leaves parliament.
And in case you need a list of reasons as to why Costello would be a good leader (despite being a Republican):
Costello’s experience poses a potential threat to the Rudd Government’s confidence, which is vulnerable because of its inability to shrug off the mentality of the 24-hour news cycle and the imperative to announce new things; its hyper-sensitivity to criticism; and its insecurity about managing the economy. Instead of behaving like a confident, popular new government with a clear mandate and overwhelming public support for its cultural agenda and climate change policy, Labor has jumped in fright at the mere suggestion Costello may be changing his mind. It is out of proportion to the continuing positive public response to the Rudd Government and general assumption that Kevin Rudd will not be a oncer as Prime Minister.