Not yet time to get carried away – update

Posted by Chief Blogger – 2 March, 2010

The latest Newspoll has the Coalition ahead by 1 point on the primary vote, behind 4 points on 2PP. The Greens primary vote has suffered a mini-collapse by 3 points down to 9 points. Not sure how significant that is. Abbott’s personal approval continues to rise but still a long way behind Rudd, 55 to 30, however Abbott’s satisfaction rating is nearly as high as Rudd’s now. It has jumped 7 points in 1 month.

I think Abbott would be a little disappointed that the Coalition are not closer on 2PP even though this month is an improvement over last month. There is definitely a clear trend towards the Coalition, though the dependency class is probably hanging tough with Rudd for now until they see what fiscal treats will be doled out to them post-election. The key may be the ‘other’ and ‘uncommitted’ vote, which currently stands at 15 points. Tapping into that little mystery by finding out who these people are may avert the need to sell the Coalition’s soul to the Green devil.

UPDATE

Brilliant observations in comments.

  • John Comnenus

    A couple of very interesting statistics come out of the most recent Newspoll. Both of which might point to a ‘hidden’ effect that favours the Coalition.

    The big news from this poll is that the total ALP-Greens primary vote is less than 50%. This is a first since Abbot became leader, and probably since Rudd’s win in 07. It possibly indicates that the public mood is shifting to the Right. The combined ALP-Green primary vote since Abbott became leader has fallen from 55% of the total to 49%. I believe this is a very significant outcome of the most recent poll. It means that for the first time since Rudd won, the electorate is genuinely up for grabs. In the 07 election the combined ALP Greens vote was about 1.5% less than the ALP’s two party preferred vote. If this percentage is applied as a proxy to determine the current 2PP vote, then the result is 50.5% ALP and 49.5%. Using this proxy for the 2PP vote Abbott has wound in the ALP from 57.5% in Nov 09 to 50.5% in the most recent poll. That’s a 7% swing back to the Coalition as opposed to the 5% recorded in the 2PP ratings.

    Now let’s look at the satisfaction ratings of both leaders in a slightly different way. Rather than focus on just the net satisfaction I have looked at the maximum and minimum net satisfaction of both leaders. If we take the net satisfaction (satisfied minus dissatisfied) and add the uncommitted we obtain the maximum possible satisfaction of the leaders and if we subtract the uncommitted from the net we can determine the minimum net satisfaction of the leaders. On the maximum possible satisfaction Abbott overtook Rudd in Feb 14 Newspoll (26 to 20) This is slightly down in the latest poll to a 24 – 20 lead. This tends to indicate that Abbott has more to possibly gain from future polls. When looking at the minimum net satisfaction Rudd was at 0 to now be at positive 2. Abbott however has consistently closed his net minimum from -20 to a much better -4. If current trends continue then Abbott and Rudd will be roughly even around ’0′ or + 1 next poll.

    These two measures might reflect a deeper electoral shift towards conservative politics since Abbott became leader. One can only hope so.